Skip to main content

Earlier Writing

What we published before

A selection of writing from 2023 and 2024, republished as a dated record. None of it has been updated, and none of it reflects the laboratory's current view. Where a piece made a checkable claim, what happened to that claim is stated on the page.

Current research library

Twenty one pieces were published on the previous site. Seven are reproduced here. The rest are not, and the reason is worth stating: most were single-security advocacy whose price targets were computed by measuring the distance back to an earlier high. That is arithmetic presented as a forecast, and it is the thing this laboratory now exists to avoid doing. They are kept on file rather than deleted.

  1. November 16, 2024 Introducing the XG Ebb & Flow Model: Harnessing the Rhythms of Complex Systems 1,439 words

    The first public statement of the Ebb and Flow model. The model has developed considerably since, and this piece is kept as the origin document rather than as a current description. Its promotional register is not how the laboratory writes now.

  2. November 7, 2024 The World Recalibrated: What Trump’s Return Means for Geopolitics and Markets 2,160 words

    Written days after the November 2024 US election, as a set of scenarios rather than a forecast. It names no security and makes no dated call. Read it as a snapshot of how the question looked at the time, not as a description of what followed.

  3. September 27, 2024 Why a Recession May Be Coming: What the Yield Curve and Historical Data Tell Us 1,553 words

    This piece argued that a recession was likely as soon as February 2025, on the basis of the yield curve reverting after a prolonged inversion. The reversion happened. The recession did not. The 2022 to 2024 inversion is now catalogued alongside 1966 and 1998 as a case where the signal did not resolve into a downturn. The reasoning is left as published.

  4. October 2, 2023 Unveiling the World's Largest Lithium Deposit: Its Global Impact and Investment Potential 831 words

    Reportage on the McDermitt Caldera assessment as published in 2023. Subsequent estimates, permitting, and project status have moved on.

  5. July 11, 2023 The Future of the Hydrogen Economy: A Deep Dive into Green Hydrogen 1,288 words

    A survey of green hydrogen economics as they stood in mid-2023. The cost figures and project timelines quoted here are now several years out of date and should not be relied on.

  6. July 10, 2023 The Peaks and Troughs: Unraveling the Dynamics of Bull and Bear Markets 1,587 words
  7. July 8, 2023 Sailing the Financial Ocean: A Deep Dive into Market Dynamics and the Trader's Journey 1,164 words

7 pieces, 10,022 words, published between July 8, 2023 and November 16, 2024. Every piece is reproduced as published. Nothing has been rewritten, corrected, or improved. Original URLs redirect here. Nothing on this page is investment advice, a recommendation, or a current view of any security or market.